Burson-Marsteller

Copenhagen Calling – Part 3

by Bill Royce on 12th December 2009 • The Cast Blog

At some point in large UN conferences like this, it becomes a business of expectation management to recalibrate the benchmark for success. On Friday there was every sign that this was a conference at risk.

When two major plenary-style briefings for civil society are cancelled without explanation – by the heads of the UNFCCC and the Subsidiary Board for Implementation (SBI) respectively – you know there is something significant happening behind the scenes.

By the time the latest draft of the ‘negotiating text’ – which will be the basis for the discussions between Environment Ministers and, then later in the week, the participating Heads of Government including Gordon Brown and Barack Obama – it became clear that the aim is for a minimalist outcome. Indeed, I get a sense that Yvo de Boer would be happy if he can get a three-line haiku agreed.

Mid-year the negotiating text ran to almost 60-pages, which large sections “bracketed” – indicating that there are alternative wordings proposed and yet to be agreed. By Friday the negotiating text had been condensed to less than 10 pages, which indicates agreement on some of the sections but reflects a scaling back of ambition – and all of the critical issues remain “bracketed”.

It looks to me like this week will try to get hard agreement on four key questions (and any others would be seen as a bonus): the target for developed countries to reduce their emissions by 2020 and 2050; matching targets for developing countries to limit their emissions growth; financing the flow of support to the developing world (the World Bank estimates that $100 billion a year is needed); and the governance structures for managing those funds.

The other subtext from Friday is that there appears to be a growing scientific and political convergence on the 350 parts per million target for stabilising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is some 40 ppm below where we are today, and could only be achieved with substantial and early changes. As noted last week, this has been adopted by the Association of Small Island States and is backed by some very senior climate scientists.

While the UK’s Met Office is careful not to endorse any particular targets, in their scientific briefing on Friday afternoon (which was standing-room only) presented some grim data on the impact of a sustained increase of 2 degrees in average temperature. While some parts of the world could enjoy initial benefits, the impacts on the Amazon (dieback), the Arctic (almost total disappearance of summer ice) and rainfall/food production are dire – together with the conclusion that there are thresholds beyond which rainforest and Arctic ice cannot recover.

When I left the Bella Centre for the final time, workers were busy laying grit on roads and nailing carpet over the wooden walkways in preparation for icy conditions and possibly snow this coming week. I suspect that inside the Centre, the negotiations – like our climate itself – are about to get hotter.

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