Burson-Marsteller

Britain in the EU in a post-election world

by Jeremy Galbraith on 28th April 2010 • The Cast Blog

Britain’s place in the European Union has been a hot political issue since the UK joined the EEC in 1973 – and even before then, as Britain pondered its post war role in Europe. Controversy about Britain’s relationship with the EU reached its peak in the early-to-mid 1990s with the civil war in John Major’s ailing government caused by the Maastricht Treaty. Despite public concern about the Lisbon Treaty, Labour has successfully avoided allowing Europe to become an all consuming political issue during its 13 years in office. And despite a generally Eurosceptic public there is little evidence that Europe is an issue that determines a significant number of votes at general elections, although the UK Independence Party has had impressive results at the last two European elections.

I don’t see this election being any different despite some broken European promises from Labour and the Tories and the Liberals’ very pro-EU stance which is clearly out of step with public opinion. While last week’s second leaders’ election debate started with a question on Europe the issue didn’t dominate the debate at all in a way it would have done in the 1990s. The Lisbon Treaty, which re-packaged much of the draft EU constitution, came without a referendum, despite a promise in 2005 from all three main parties to hold a vote on the original text. The fact is that none of the three major parties has anything to gain by making Europe a key election issue. Even the Tories, whose views are probably closest to public opinion, don’t want to re-ignite internal debate on Europe.

A (unlikely) Labour victory on 6 May would promise more of the same in terms of EU policy – hoping to avoid any treaty changes but working with the EU to address issues such as the economy, energy and climate change. But it is telling that the Labour manifesto mentions ‘Europe’ only a handful of times in a 78-page document – and then only in general terms.

The Liberal Democrats have perhaps the most ‘quietly explosive’ policy – a referendum on EU membership, which would be the first such poll since 1975. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems manifesto is very pro-European (unlike their opponents, they still propose to join the single European currency, albeit when the economic conditions are right and after a referendum). The Lib Dems’ leader, Nick Clegg, has strong Euro-credentials (he is a former MEP and European Commission official). Wary of attacks on his background, he says that he is a ‘critical friend’ of the EU and that he is the only party leader to ‘understand’ the Union’s workings properly. If there is to be a hung parliament, it is not out of the question that a ‘Lib-Lab’ agreement could see Clegg as foreign secretary (possibly with the unpopular Gordon Brown ditched as prime minister and replaced by a more acceptable Labour figure, such as David Miliband). This is, of course, the dream scenario for many in Brussels!

Nevertheless, a Conservative victory – or at least David Cameron as prime minister – remains the most likely scenario next week. And political commentators suggest this outcome could have profound effects on Britain’s relationship with its EU partners. I am not so sure.

David Cameron plans to ‘repatriate’ powers from the EU – notably on social policy, working time and justice and home affairs. He repeated this commitment during the leaders’ debate last week. But this will not be as easy as he makes it sound. This would require support from other EU member states – and no government has pledged to help. Politically, there would be little appetite from either Nicolas Sarkozy or Angela Merkel to ride to Mr Cameron’s rescue (they are still irked by his decision to take his MEPs out of the centre-right EPP group in the European Parliament last year – a pledge that had helped him win the Tory leadership in 2005). Other EU countries may complain about ‘social dumping’ if rules do not apply uniformly (and therefore make Britain an easier place to employ people than other member states). The UK can already opt-out of justice issues – but if it does so, it risks losing tools that it finds useful, like the Europe-wide arrest warrant, or a common approach to asylum policy.

The Tories also plan a sovereignty act to highlight the UK parliament’s supremacy – which could put the UK at odds with EU law (despite Tory claims that there is a precedent in Germany). Referenda would be compulsory for all future treaty changes – presenting a major block to future EU constitutional reform.

There is much unease in Brussels about a potential Tory victory. But I am not convinced that David Cameron will really want to put a fight with Europe at the heart of a first term back in power for the Conservatives. Will he really want to re-ignite the febrile European debate of the 1990s that helped to tear the Conservatives apart when voters want him to sort out the economy? A policy of grudging cooperation, interspersed with the occasional showdown, seems more likely to me than a full-scale battle to repatriate powers.

Burson-Marsteller is hosting an exclusive event at the London Stock Exchange on Thursday 29 April to watch the historic final leaders’ debate on the economy. The event will include a panel discussion. Sky News is covering the debate live and is also running a series of articles by Mark Penn.

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